Trump comeback won’t hurt PHL-US ties — analyst

By Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporter

A DONALD J. TRUMP comeback in the White House would “not really hurt” Manila and Washington’s diplomatic ties, an international relations expert said as the United States gears for its presidential polls on Tuesday.

Josue Raphael J. Cortez, a diplomacy instructor at the De La Salle-College of St. Benilde’s School of Diplomacy and Governance, said that while Mr. Trump’s trade policies vary from incumbent American President Joseph Robinette Biden’s, America is still poised to leverage its growing importance in the Indo-Pacific region.

“Given the push that the United States Congress right now is undertaking to ensure that the US will play a more vital role in instilling order in the Indo-Pacific due to the present circumstances, then there’s a possibility that Trump will then be forced to adhere to current American initiatives towards the region,” he told BusinessWorld in a Facebook Messenger chat.

If Mr. Trump took a different stance; it could cause wariness among Indo-Pacific countries on what the US want in the region, he said.

“Given that he is also wary of the fact that the United States’ power is being challenged by China, then foreign policy-wise he will continue to undertake a more stringent approach towards China,” he said.

The Republican bet previously employed in his presidency the “America first policy,” which Mr. Cortez said may be reinstated in his push for “populist-gearing policies” in the US if he wins this week.

The convicted felon nominee is also known for his animosity towards migration-related matters.

“Filipinos seeking to move abroad may also have a hard time should his regime opt to enforce policies which would act as deterrent for migration,” Mr. Cortez said.

A HARRIS PRESIDENCY
Meanwhile, a Kamala Devi Harris administration would likely promote a rules-based order and potentially counterbalance China’s influence, he added.

Mr. Cortez said the Democrat’s track record as a vice president showed her commitment to maintaining a rules-based order across the region.

“[Such initiatives] may also be a deterrent for China’s aspirations across the region which it plans to realize by hook or by crook,” he said.

During her tenure as vice president, Ms. Harris visited the Philippines in November 2022, and other Southeast Asian countries.

These visits showed Washington’s “unfazed support” for regional peace and stability, as well as Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) centrality, according to Mr. Cortez.

The Philippine-US relations during the Biden administration also saw the expansion of military bases that will host US forces to 9 locations from the initial 5, under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement.

The allied countries have also conducted a series of joint military exercises in the South China Sea to strengthen relations and build capacity.

In what it called a “historic first,” the US flew its mid-range missile system, Typhon, to the Philippines in April. The missile system remains in the country despite China’s demands to withdraw it from the Southeast Asian nation.