Palay output officially estimated at 19.41 MMT in 2024, down 3.24%

THE Department of Agriculture (DA) said on Wednesday that palay (unmilled rice) production will likely decline 3.24% in 2024, due to crop losses from tropical cyclones.

“With a forecast loss of 358,000 metric tons, based on historical damage and actual risks this quarter, total annual palay production is expected to hit 19.41 million metric tons (MMT),” Agriculture Undersecretary for Rice Industry Development Christopher V. Morales said in a statement.

He added that based on the palay projections, the expected output is equivalent to about 12.69 MMT of milled rice.

In 2023, actual palay output was 20.06 MMT. The new 2024 forecast also represents a downgrade from the 20.1 MMT estimate the DA issued in August.

If the forecast is borne out, it would be the lowest production level since 2020, during which grain output totaled 19.29 MMT.

According to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), palay production for the third quarter is projected to decline 11.9% to 3.35 MMT, against 3.8 MMT in actual production a year earlier.

The DA said better seed, farm equipment and other support provided through the Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund and National Rice Program have helped mitigate production setbacks.

The government weather service, known as PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration), estimated a 71% chance of La Niña occurring between September and November, likely persisting until the first quarter of 2025.

The La Niña phenomenon heightens the likelihood of tropical cyclones, low-pressure areas, and the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and intensifies the Southwest Monsoon.

So far, PAGASA has reported about 11 tropical cyclones entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

Meanwhile, the DA said that it is aiming for a year-end national rice inventory of 3.83 MMT, despite the projected drop in rice production. This is equivalent to about 100 days’ demand.

“This projection incorporates updated rice stock data, actual import arrivals, and historical trends, ensuring the country’s rice needs are met despite the production drop,” Mr. Morales added.

The updated rice inventory forecast is higher than the 3.64 MMT estimated by the department last May, equivalent to about 95 days’ demand.

The national rice inventory rose 6.8% year on year to 1.66 MMT in Sept., the PSA reported.

“The recent cut in tariff rates further incentivized imports, allowing for greater access to global rice markets and mitigating potential shortages,” he added.

As of Oct. 14, rice imports totaled 3.57 MMT, according to the Bureau of Plant Industry.

In June, President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. signed Executive Order No. 62, which reduced tariffs on imported rice to 15% from 35% until 2028, billing it as an inflation-containment measure. — Adrian H. Halili