PAGASA: Tropical cyclone may hit Philippines before Christmas Day

A TROPICAL cyclone could develop and enter the Philippines from Dec. 18 to 24, according to the state weather bureau.

In a report on Wednesday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said that a tropical cyclone-like vortex (TCLV) might approach the eastern portions of Mindanao, the Visayas and Southern Luzon.

While the vortex had a low to moderate chance of intensifying into a tropical cyclone, it was more likely to do so during the forecast period.

Meanwhile, PAGASA said three weather systems were affecting the entire country — the northeast monsoon or amihan, bringing cooler winds to northern Luzon; the easterlies affecting the Visayas and Mindanao with warm winds; and the shear line affecting Central and Southern Luzon.

The northeast monsoon is expected to bring cloudy skies with rain to Cagayan Valley, Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province and Ifugao. PAGASA warned of potential flash floods and landslides in these areas due to moderate to heavy rain.

The Ilocos Region, the rest of the Cordillera Administrative Region and Central Luzon, are also affected by the northeast monsoon, with no significant effects expected.

The easterlies are expected to bring cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms over Eastern Samar, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur and the rest of the country. Flash floods or landslides are also possible due to moderate to heavy rain, according to PAGASA.

Benison Estareja, PAGASA’s weather specialist, said the shear line is the area where the northeast monsoon and easterlies converge, affecting areas such as Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Aurora, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur and Catanduanes.

“When warm and cold air converge, we can expect cloudy skies and rain,” he said in Filipino on Wednesday.

Areas affected by the shear line are likely to experience moderate to heavy, and at times intense, rain of more or less 100 millimeters, Mr. Estareja added.

The Philippines experienced a devastating typhoon season in 2024, with several powerful storms making landfall one after another in September to November, including Severe Tropical Storm Trami (Kristine) and Super Typhoon Man-Yi (Pepito).

The Southeast Asian nation lies along the typhoon belt in the Pacific and experiences about 20 storms each year. It also lies in the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire, a belt of volcanoes around the Pacific Ocean where most of the world’s earthquakes strike. — Edg Adrian A. Ava