Austin’s visit seen as last-ditch effort to reaffirm Philippine-US defense ties

By John Victor D. Ordoñez, Reporter

US DEFENSE chief Lloyd Austin III visit to Manila this week is the outgoing Biden administration’s last-ditch effort to reinforce their security commitments to the Philippines as Washington is headed into another Trump presidency, security analysts said at the weekend.

“I think he will reassure his hosts that the US commitment to the Philippines remained strong throughout the first Trump administration, and he has no reason to think it will change in a Trump 2.0,”  Raymond M. Powell, a fellow at the Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, said in an X message.

He described the outgoing Defense secretary a “lame duck” as he only has two months left before President-elect Donald J. Trump takes office.

“That does not make him powerless, but it does limit what he can accomplish with two months left on the job,” Mr. Powell said.

The US Defense Department said last week that Mr. Austin’s visit to Manila aims to explore deeper security ties and ensure peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region.

He will meet with his Philippine counterparts to “advance security objectives with Philippine leaders,” the agency said in a statement.

Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. told reporters last week that ties between both countries would not change under a Trump presidency

The US is the Philippines’ major security partner, with a 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty compelling both nations to defend each other in case of an armed attack.

Under President Joseph R. Biden, Washington reiterated that the treaty covers any attacks on Philippine vessels, personnel and other assets in the South China Sea and anywhere in the Pacific.

In April, Republican Senator Bill Hagerty and Democrat Senator Tim Kaine pushed a bill that increased US military aid to the Philippines to $500 million from $40 million over five fiscal years through 2029.

“This is a last minute attempt by the Biden administration to see to it that all the security agreements signed and talked about between the US and the Philippines will continue their attempt that before a new administration takes over things will continue to be in place,” Aaron Jed Rabena, who specializes in geopolitics and foreign policy at the University of the Philippines Asian Center, said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

Last year, the Philippines gave the US access to four more military bases under their 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement.

Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Eduardo Gerardo “Gibo” C. Teodoro, Jr. on Tuesday said China is putting greater pressure on the Philippines to cede its sovereign rights in the South China Sea.

China and the Philippines have sparred repeatedly this year over disputed areas of the South China Sea, including the Scarborough Shoal, one of Asia’s most contested features.

China claims almost the entire South China Sea, a conduit for more than $3 trillion of annual ship-borne commerce. The Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2016 said China’s claims had no legal basis, a ruling Beijing rejects.

In a separate development, Philippine Foreign Affairs Undersecretary Ma. Theresa P. Lazaro has urged Poland to support Manila’s efforts to ensure international law is upheld amid maritime disputes with China in the South China Sea after she met with international relations experts in Warsaw, according to the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA).

“She invited Poland to consider joining the chorus of like-minded countries that have publicly expressed support for Philippine efforts to uphold the rule of law in the South China Sea, including calling on all parties to abide by the final and legally-binding 2016 Arbitral Award,” the agency said in a statement, citing her roundtable discussion on global issues at the Polish Institute of International Affairs or the Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych (PISM)  in Warsaw, Poland on Nov. 15.

At the roundtable meeting, Ms. Lazaro also spoke with PISM international affairs analysts and researchers on global issues, particularly those in the Asia-Pacific region and the current world order.

“Undersecretary Lazaro underscored that the Philippines shares the common values of human rights, rule of law and the rules-based international order with the European Union and its Member States,” according to the DFA.

Jarosław Szczepankiewicz, chargé d’affaires at the Embassy of Poland in Manila, earlier said that Poland is open to participating and observing joint military exercises with the Philippines and its allies in the South China Sea amid China’s growing assertiveness in the waterway.

Poland Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski and deputy ministers in September met with their Philippine counterparts to explore deeper bilateral ties.